I've made a few changes to the portfolio. But first: isn't the VIX trade just great? As I mentioned before, this is not just a hedge but a stand-along trade. It's moved from about the 13 handle to the 16 handle. My best guess is that the stock market will have a rally here. This will probably work against the trade short-term. Even so, I think vols have reached a major turning point. Keep the trade on - perhaps roll some from Aug into Nov.
Other changes -
I am getting out of the chocolate trade. As I wrote a few weeks ago, this is pretty well advertised. Over the long term, these stocks will probably do better. However a lot of folks are in, and there will be sharp reactions. Use these to get back in.
I am keeping some of the cocoa position that was an (expanded) hedge. The long term for cocoa is quite good, and I expect it to trade higher over time. OTOH, it is also a crowded trade, and I have taken some off. Trading from the long side, rather than buy and hold, will be the way to go.
Bought natgas futures - see above post
Looking to short ADM, buy corn. more later...
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