Thursday, June 30, 2011

Update and More on CALM

UAN This has been a huge winner, up 13% since I first put it on the blog. Today the USDA came out and said that corn acreage is higher than the market had thought. UAN products are sold mainly to grow corn. I took a little off. The stock may have a downturn now as the market reflexively reacts to lower corn prices. (Fertilizer companies are often used by equity traders to play the ag market). If so, I'll buy more.

BARN This is a little tricky. In Swiss Franc terms the stock has been steady. But the Franc has been gaining sharply. In US$ terms, the stock is up slightly since I put it on the blog and up 19% since Jan 1. The company's EU sales are being hurt by the strong Swissy. Still, I believe this is a good outsourcing and EM story, and I am holding on.

CALM This has gained 6% since I put it on the blog. The ample supplies of feeds in this morning's USDA report should be good for this name.
Some more info on CALM. The stock pays out 1/3 of earnings in dividend, rather than a fixed amount. Management thinks this makes more sense in a cyclical business like eggs. I agree, but I'm sure this is widely disliked by the average retail and long-only investor. This is the sort of thing I like to see: a non-typical but smart commodity-oriented decision.
The other thing about CALM is that it is very heavily shorted (38% of the float!). I'm not sure what this is about; there may be something I don't know about. One idea I have heard - that other egg producers are using it to hedge! Also, it seems the shorts have been in this since forever. If you have an account at a broker like Interactive Brokers, who allows you to lend out your stock, you can pick up about 8% annually on the borrow!

WORKING ON -- Marathon Petroleum (spinoff).

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