Long Cocoa

Here's why...

1. Weather in the West African cocoa zone has gotten quite dry. It was very wet for several months, but no more. In fact, satellite photos show suprisingly low levels of vegatation. This has happened awfully fast, so the satellites may be wrong or not getting the whole picture. Nonetheless, it is a big change.

2. Last week's Committemnts of traders had managed money net short cocoa. This is very unusual. The outside money normally wants to be long, and this is especially true for markets which they don't fully understand, like cocoa. I have gone through the records, and a short MM position has always let to a rally.